If there is no statistical data, it makes sense to use qualitative methods. If you have specific information and enough time, it is preferable to use quantitative methods. However, the optimal approach is to combine these tools.
The scenario method is a vivid example of such complementarity. We are talking about a type of expert assessment that allows taking into account the opinion of professionals and also includes quantitative indicators. Thus, based on the scenario method, it is possible to calculate specific risk indicators.
The analysis of possible dangers involves considering three perspectives: negative , neutral and positive . For each scenario, specific values are defined for the project components. Then, a probability assessment is selected for each of them. After that, the expected profit and the required investment volume are calculated when implementing each of the scenarios.
Let's assume that a chain hong kong email list of grocery stores plans to set up its own production of homemade pies. Three project development scenarios are formed, each of which takes into account specific indicators. Then, the approximate values of the project development are calculated, including the expected profit, the payback period for the introduction of its own production, and the return on investment.
Which financial risk assessment method to choose
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Although the scenario analysis method can provide the most complete picture of the project's "risk map", it also has its limitations: it is impossible to foresee all possible options, which makes scenarios only approximate.
Risk assessment may require various costs. For example, a SWOT analysis can be carried out independently or with the involvement of 1-2 experts, which will cost approximately 20-30 thousand rubles. If we are talking about a comprehensive risk analysis, then you will have to pay about 60 thousand rubles depending on the industry. In addition, it will require more time and effort.
If you are running a small project, it may be better not to invest large amounts of money in analysis. In such cases, testing may be more appropriate.